In a recent interview, the CEO of Mercedes has spoke about the technology inventions and the hardware and software developments. The interview included the thoughts of the CEO sharing his views and predictions on how our lives will change in the next 20 years or so.
He said: (Mercedes Benz’s) their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla, Google, Apple, Amazon.
Basically, software companies who also happen to make hardware and other technologies.
Software and AI
- Software will disrupt and change most of our traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
- Uber is only just a software company with a popular software tool – and they don’t own any vehicles, yet they are the biggest Taxi companies in the word.
- Airbnb is also one of the biggest hotel companies in the world – though they do not own any hotels or own any properties.
- Artificial Intelligence: AI and computers have become so smart at understanding and analysing data, that it was now possible to beat the world’s best Go player when playing against the computer. This was only expected to happen in 10 years time.
- IBM Watson offers legal advice within minutes in the US (for far more or less basic stuff) – because of this, young lawyers are already unable to get jobs. IBM offers 90% accuracy compared to 70% accuracy when advice is given by humans.
- It’s recommended for students studying law to stop immediately – there will be 90% less real lawyers in the future and only the specialists will remain – for some time.
- IBM Watson already helps doctors diagnose cancer 4x more accurately than humans. Facebook has algorithms that can recognise faces far better than humans can. By 2030, computers are expected to become more intelligent than humans.
- By 2018, self driving cars are expected to become available for the mass population in developed countries. By 2020, the whole car industry will start to be disrupted. You will likely not want to have and own a car anymore. You will likely want to call a car on your phone and take you to your desired location in minutes. You will not need to spend time on finding a car park or pay for servicing your car. You will only have to pay for the driven distance and you will also have time to do anything in the car while being driven to your destination (playing with your children, doing work, reading newspaper etc.)
- Self driving vehicles will drastically change large and small cities. There will be 90-95% less cars. Cities will be able to transform car parks into actual parks. Lives will also be saved – currently an accident occurs at every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), but with self driving cars this will increase to 6 million miles (or 10 million km) and will likely save over a million lives in a single year.
- Most car companies will likely become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach to just build a better car every few years, while Technology companies like Tesla, Google etc. will have a revolutionary approach to build better computers on wheels.
- Engineers from Volkswagen and Audio are one of the named few companies who are scared of the likes of Tesla.
- Insurance companies will have to re-work their insurances as there will be little-to-no accidents. Insurance is also expected to become 100x cheaper – also their car insurance business model will likely disappear.
- Real estate will also face a lot of changes. Working while commuting will make people live further away from their work places to live in better and more beautiful places and cities.
- Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2020. Cities and Metropolises will become less noisy and less polluted as most cars will become electric. Electricity will also become much cheaper and cleaner. Solar energy has changed the industry in 30 years and the effect can already be seen – it’s very positive, clean and cheap.
Impact on infrastructure
- Last year more solar energy was installed than fossil on a worldwide spectrum. Energy companies are are trying their best to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that won’t last long. Technology will likely take care of that strategy.
- As the electricity will become cheaper, so is water. Desalination of salt water now only requires 2kWh per cubic meter (at 0.25 cents). We will not have polluted water in most places in the future, thanks to transforming salt water into drinkable, clean and healthy water.
- Tricorder X will likely be announced this year with an affordable price. (the name comes from Star Trek) The device will work with smartphones and will let you take retina scan, blood samples and breath tests. It will be able to analyse over 54 biomarkers that can identify diseases and more. In just a few years, everyone on the world will be able to get access to world class medical analysis for free. You will finally be able to say Goodbye to medical establishments.
3D printing is the future to make and create anything you can dream of
- 3D printing machines cost about $18,000 10 years ago, that price now stands at an affordable $400. During that period of time, the printer also become 100x faster and reliable. All major companies have started printing our shoes and save millions if not more.
- Airplane manufacturers already 3D print certain parts for their aircrafts to save money and have the same reliability and quality. The International Space Station is also equipped with a 3D printer to eliminate the need for large amount of spare parts.
- Today’s smartphones are already available to make a 3D scan of your body parts, home etc. You will likely soon be able to scan your feet and print your very own, perfect shoe at home. You’ll only be required to have a few certain materials and follow a certain order.
- China has already built a 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of all items produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If something will not work with your smartphone or your computer, you better forget your idea. Any idea that is designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
- 70-80% of the jobs will disappear in the next 20-30 years. There will be a lot of new job categories, but it’s unclear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small amount of time.
- There will be a $100 agriculture robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries will become managers of their own fields instead of working all day planting and farming on their fields.
- Aeroponics will require much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and it will keep getting cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. As of today, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Think about this – what if we don’t require that much space anymore? There are many startups working and competing with each other to bring insect protection to the market. It will contain more protein than meat. It will likely be labelled as “alternative protection source” (because nearly everyone rejects the idea of eating insects).
- An application called “moodies” is already available – it tells you what mood you’re in. By 2020, there will be applications that will be able to tell you many things by facial expressions. Image a political debate where you can tell which person is saying the truth and which one isn’t.
- Bitcoin could likely become the default reserve currency for the whole world.
Life in the near future (in a few years up to 30 years)
- As of today, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago the average life span age was 79 years, today it’s 80 years. By 2036, it’s the increase is expected to increase by a whole year/per year. In the future, it may well be possible to live for well over 100 happy and healthy years.
- The cheapest smartphones will get smarter in the future and will likely not cost more than $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone and have access to world class education.
- Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child would need to learn in the school in one of the First world countries. In Indonesia, there have been several releases of software and it will soon happen in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese countries too – this summer. There is enormous potential to all of this if the applications are offered for free and in English language. Children in Africa and other countries all around the world would be able to become fluent in English – this might also happen in just a few years from now on.
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